For decades, the U.S. real estate and mortgage markets operated under a delicate but stable balance—each participant, from agents to lenders, adhered to a well-known structure. Buyers paid agents, agents split commissions, lenders issued loans, and builders delivered homes. It resembled a Nash Equilibrium: no single party could alter strategy without worsening its own outcome.
Today, that balance is unraveling.
Breaking the Commission Consensus
In March 2024, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a $418 million settlement to resolve accusations of inflating home transaction costs through fixed buyer agent commissions. The suit struck at the heart of a longstanding practice: commissions of 5%–6% were customarily baked into the price of a home, with half paid to the buyer’s agent—regardless of performance, experience, or necessity.
With this settlement, the real estate industry is at a tipping point. Sellers, buyers, and agents are all rethinking the value of the agent’s role, while new models of home-buying and selling are emerging.
Lenders at a Crossroads
While real estate commission models face disruption, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from below 3% in 2021 to over 7% in 2023, causing a sharp slowdown in transaction volume in recent years.
However, the outlook for originations is improving. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, total mortgage origination volume is projected to grow from $1.79 trillion in 2024 to $2.3 trillion in 2025—a 28% increase. This includes a forecasted 13% rise in purchase originations to $1.46 trillion and an increase in total loan volume to 6.5 million loans in 2025, up from 5.1 million the previous year.
At the same time, the mortgage industry—currently a $2.3 trillion annual market is home to over 200,000 mortgage brokers and more than 5,100 financial institutions competing for market share. The number of mortgage brokers has steadily increased, contributing to market fragmentation.
Rocket vs. UWM: The Great Mortgage Battle
In this crowded space, two giants, Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC), have taken divergent approaches to securing a piece of the pie.
In March 2025, Rocket announced its acquisition of Redfin, a prominent online real estate brokerage, in an all-stock deal valued at $1.75 billion . Shortly thereafter, Rocket revealed plans to acquire Mr. Cooper Group, the largest U.S. mortgage servicer, in an all-stock transaction worth $9.4 billion . The acquisition is set to position Rocket as a comprehensive solution for homeowners, managing one in every six U.S. mortgages.
These strategic moves highlight Rocket’s commitment to building a vertically integrated ecosystem—leveraging technology, distribution, and servicing scale to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency.
UWM, by contrast, has remained committed to its wholesale-first model, emphasizing partnerships with independent mortgage brokers. By empowering brokers with competitive rates and proprietary tech platforms, UWM aims to preserve its dominant position in broker-led lending while defending its share in a contracting market.
This strategic divergence reveals a deepening ideological split: Rocket’s top-down integration versus UWM’s bottom-up distribution.
Rising Costs: Builders Struggle to Adapt
While lenders battle over market share, builders face a separate challenge: rapidly rising construction costs. Tariffs on Canadian lumber, Chinese goods, and steel have added to the cost of building homes, with the National Association of Home Builders estimating material costs have increased by over 30% in the last five years. This increase in costs has put further strain on the affordability of new homes, as the average price of a new home in the U.S. surpassed $400,000in 2023.
With over 700,000 new homes being built annually in the U.S., the supply of new homes is still not keeping up with demand. This has led to housing shortages, which further fuels price increases, making it harder for first-time buyers to break into the market.
AI’s Role in Shaping the Future of Real Estate
The most significant change, however, may come from technology. New players like reAlpha, an AI-driven platform, are redefining how homebuyers interact with the market. These platforms use artificial intelligence to eliminate the need for buyer agents altogether, allowing consumers to search, negotiate, and close deals entirely online.
ReAlpha’s platform is just one example of a growing trend that’s removing intermediaries from real estate transactions. If successful, this model could disrupt an industry where agents currently take a substantial share of the transaction pie, often as much as 3% per transaction.
A Market in Flux
The dynamics of the housing and mortgage industries are shifting profoundly. Notably, the number of professionals in the industry is shrinking. The number of licensed mortgage loan officers dropped from approximately 176,000 in 2021 to fewer than 94,000 by early 2024, representing a 47% decline, according to a report by RISMedia.
A similar contraction is underway among real estate agents. As of early 2024, membership in the National Association of Realtors fell below 1.5 million, down from a peak of over 1.6 million in 2022—a decline of roughly 7% in just over a year, according to data published by NAR.
As players exit, the Nash Equilibrium that once stabilized the real estate ecosystem has eroded. What replaces it will depend on who adapts most quickly to the rules of this new game.
Conclusion: Who Will Lead the Charge?
The future of real estate and mortgage markets is no longer about maintaining a steady state. It’s about survival and adaptation. Rocket may lead if tech defines the future. UWM could endure if trust still drives decisions. And AI-powered platforms may upend both by cutting out fees and friction.
As the industry faces a perfect storm of rising costs, regulatory change, and technological disruption, one thing is certain: the game has fundamentally changed. The players who can adapt to these shifts will determine the future of the $4 trillion real estate market.