Here’s a different view on Mars Mission

http://www.businessinsider.com/nick-bostrom-hopes-theres-no-life-on-mars-2014-9

But India’s MOM was more a defence mission than simple space odyssey. Right? Imagine you can launch a rocket deep into space and change direction to land/blast at a specific target. Remember star wars? Who needs ICBMs and other missiles?

MoM

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Hard Thing About Hard Things

Finished reading “Hard Thing About Hard Things” by Ben Horowitz. I couldn’t keep it down till I finished reading!!

This is a “must read” book for all leaders, CEOs, CxOs and would-be entrepreneurs. With a great mix of funny quotes and rap snippets, he has narrated the story of how he built his companies and what it really takes to build a great company.

Far better than the run of the mill management books that we read on a regular basis.

Giri Devanur & Ben Horowitz

Giri Devanur & Ben Horowitz

Cheers,

Giri Devanur

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What’sApp….Should Apple stock surge?

Whats app got sold for a cool $19Billion to Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB).

But why should Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) stock jump?

There are some 450Million users of Whats App. So their CLTV (Customer lifetime value) works approximately $55/user.

Apple has SOLD at least 500Million+ iPhones. All of them comes installed with iMessage. And most users use this app anyway. And these are your users who pay $600-$700 per handset!!

So, shouldn’t the value of Apple change & go up by another cool $20Billion? I have not seen any research report which puts $20Billion value for iMessage.

Blackberry BBM = Please don’t Cry :-(

 

 

Cheers,

Giri Devanur

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Change – How Netflix will dominate

I had predicted earlier that Netflix may lose out. That was in 2012. I was wrong on this prediction.

What a change 2 years can make!

Last few hours watched House of Cards – 2 on a binge. Frank Underwood will make NetFlix win!

Netflix will emerge as the unique leader of content creation and distribution. A feat very few cos in history have managed to acheive.

Is the netflix stock headed to $600. Double knock on the table!!

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Google and motorola

I had predicted that by 2015, google would sell Motorola by taking a $9.5Billion loss!!

http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/29/technology/mobile/motorola-lenovo/

 

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Some right..some close ..some way off

As we come close to the end of 2013..I wanted to look at my predictions for 2015. In 2011 I had made 10 predictions for 2015. (http://giridevanur.com/innovation/tech-predictions-for-2015)

Lets see how they have fared:

10. 3-D TV as a concept would have failed – Sony would be the hardest hit in this Does anyone want to sit at home and watch a serial or a News program on TV in 3D…its sounds almost crazy!!

Accurate. No major hits in this category.  

9. Peope will still be using Laptops and Desktops. Contrary to all the hype about iPads and tablets….users are still not so sure. iPads will rule the tablet market….but it wont kill the desk-top and laptop market…yet.

Accurate. I am still typing this article also on a computer.   

8. IBM will be the winner in Cloud computing. As cloud becomes more main-stream…you will differentiate men from Boys. IBM knows “how to run a data center” better than anyone on earth. So my bet is with IBM on this one.

 Partially right. Fierce fighting between Amazon and IBM is still on. I still think IBM may win this game. 

7. would have sold Motorola…after bleeding billions of dollars. Do we need an explanation for this one??  Tech world has a long history of these kinds of acquisitions having failed miserably.

Partially right.But so far no signs of great success from Google. 

6. would have sold or closed  after burning billions….!! Read the story above.

 Almost right. I haven’t heard any one buying a sun server these days!. 

5. NetFlix would be toast..Hard to pick one winner…it can be WalMart (yes WalMart!!) or a potential new service of .

Wrong. Netflix has fought back and others are decimated!. 

4. 4G/LTE Sim cards will be a raging hitWorld would have completely moved into this technology.My guess is atleast 1billion connections of 4G would happen by end of 2015.

Almost right. Its moving very fast.  

3. would be the world’s 3rd most valuable companyWalmart will be #1 and #2 may be ExxOn Mobil. I would personally like apple to be #1..but……

Apple and Exxon is fighting back and forth. Walmart is fighting with Google for 3rd spot!!. Which company will touch a 1 trillion market cap first ?:-) 

2.   may have lost its market cap by 50% or more…They would have crossed 1.5Billion registered users ….but will be losing a whole lot of users due to FB fatigue.

Accurate /2. It lost half is value after IPO. But has clawed back. The second part is almost true. Teenagers are deserting due to Levis Effect

1. will have beaten in search game. will be #1.

Absolutely wrong. Bing has not worked the way I thought it will change. 

I will write tech predictions for 2017 soon.

Wish you all a very Happy New Year!!

 

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2 interesting books

Just finished reading 2 interesting books:

1. On sales

http://www.amazon.com/The-Art-Sale-Learning-Business/dp/B00B1L8M3E/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1382788463&sr=8-1&keywords=art+of+the+sale

When Philip Delves Broughton went to Harvard Business School, an experience he wrote about in hisNew York Times bestseller Ahead of the Curve, he was baffled to find that sales was not on the curriculum.  Why not, he wondered?  Sales plays a part in everything we do—not just in clinching a deal but in convincing people of an argument, getting a job, attracting a mate, or getting a child to eat his broccoli.  Well, he thought; he’d just have to assemble his own master class in the art of selling.  And so he did, setting out on a remarkable pilgrimage to find the world’s great wizards of sales.

2. On Big data

A revelatory exploration of the hottest trend in technology and the dramatic impact it will have on the economy, science, and society at large.

Which paint color is most likely to tell you that a used car is in good shape? How can officials identify the most dangerous New York City manholes before they explode? And how did Google searches predict the spread of the H1N1 flu outbreak?

The key to answering these questions, and many more, is big data. “Big data” refers to our burgeoning ability to crunch vast collections of information, analyze it instantly, and draw sometimes profoundly surprising conclusions from it. This emerging science can translate myriad phenomena—from the price of airline tickets to the text of millions of books—into searchable form, and uses our increasing computing power to unearth epiphanies that we never could have seen before. A revolution on par with the Internet or perhaps even the printing press, big data will change the way we think about business, health, politics, education, and innovation in the years to come. It also poses fresh threats, from the inevitable end of privacy as we know it to the prospect of being penalized for things we haven’t even done yet, based on big data’s ability to predict our future behavior.

In this brilliantly clear, often surprising work, two leading experts explain what big data is, how it will change our lives, and what we can do to protect ourselves from its hazards. Big Data is the first big book about the next big thing.

www.big-data-book.com

http://www.amazon.com/Big-Data-Revolution-Transform-Think/dp/0544002695/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1382789037&sr=8-1&keywords=big+data

 

Cheers,

Giri Devanur

 

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Roulette+GPS = Beauty of Randomness

We created a new game. Instead of visiting pre-decided places to visit, we decided to pick a random number. It was 5 in our case. We then picked the 5th nearest attraction on our GPS. Landed in a beautiful location which I am sure we would have never discovered.

I am amazed by the “Beauty of Randomness”.

Imagine if all GPSes come with a randomizer button(like a roulette)…wouldn’t it be cool?

?        

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Tech Predictions for 2015

10. 3-D TV as a concept would have failed – Sony would be the hardest hit in this.  Does anyone want to sit at home and watch a serial or a News program on TV in 3D…its sounds almost crazy!!

 

9. Peope will still be using Laptops and Desktops. Contrary to all the hypeabout iPads and tablets….users are still not so sure. iPads will rule the tablet market….but it wont kill the desk-top and laptop market…yet.

 

8. IBM will be the winner in Cloud computing. As cloud becomes more main-stream…you will differentiate men from Boys. IBM knows “how to run a data center” better than anyone on earth. So my bet is with IBM on this one.

 

7. would have sold Motorola…after bleeding billions of dollars. Do we need an explanation for this one??  Tech world has a long history of these kinds of acquisitions having failed miserably.

6. would have sold or closed after burning billions….!! Read the story above.

 

5. NetFlix would be toast..Hard to pick one winner…it can be WalMart (yes WalMart!!) or a potential new service of .

 

4. 4G/LTE Sim cards will be a raging hit. World would have completely moved into this technology. My guess is atleast 1billion connections of 4G would happen by end of 2015.

 

3. would be the world’s 3rd most valuable company. Walmart will be #1 and #2 may be ExxOn Mobil. I would personally like apple to be #1..but……


2.  may have lost its market cap by 50% or more…They would have crossed 1.5Billion registered users ….but will be losing a whole lot of users due to FB fatigue.

1. will have beaten in search game. will be #1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

***These are predictions, just guess work….I can not be held responsible if these do not go as per predicted:-) They are made just for fun purpose only.

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Genetic Lottery

Genetic lottery – is it a must for success of a start-up? (continued article on Luck)

In my last blog I tried deliberating the value of “Luck” in business. While having a conversation with a young friend, I realized how dis proportionately some people are luckier.

Let’s take this picture ……..

.

see Mr. Ambani’s son  next to his dad while india’s largest private equity deal (8billion$) ……..would any young man of his age how ever smart or highest iq or whatever measure would ever get that chance.?

See the next picture…..

Siddarth Mallya being not only the unofficial (?) owner of RCB, he is heart throb of Deepika Padukone…one of the very popular actress. Is it talent or Genetic lottery??

Had Gandhi picked sardar patel instead of nehru could rahul Gandhi be the future prime minister??

 


George bush snr becoming president is 80%hard work + 20% luck and George w bush becoming president is genetic lottery. Or Geroge Bush may be 80% genetic lottery and 20% luck :-)??

Lets take the business scene. There were dozens of start ups before infosys. Some of you may have heard of ICIM technologies, Patni (Origin of infosys founders), IMR Global etc were larger than infosys till early 1990s. But was it some Genetic lottery which catapulted some companies while others either slowed down and some went out of the scene completely.?

So, is there a connection between the time and place of birth of a company? Are Is there a correlation between a founders luck and the success of a company? Learned scholars or researchers should study this aspect.0

Here are some scary statistics…. Almost 600’000 start ups get created in US per annum. But the no of IPOs in a year is less than 100!!!!!!! So, success ratio is 1:6000. Just one in 6000 make it to ipo market.

Do you consider this as plain luck or genetic lottery ….or something else. We need explore this further to analyze more data.

I request your feedback on this question……is there something like “genetic lottery” of start-ups ….and how to win that jackpot:-)

PS: i know am just raising a lot of questions….I am asking them in order to find some right answers.

//

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