Markets will recover!

IMG_2648

The year is just beginning … Markets are down almost 10%!

Reasons given are:

  1. China issues
  2. Oil prices
  3. Fed & interest rates

My opinion:

  1. China – We never know what the real problem or real solution is. I am fairly confident that they will get around this problem soon. They will ‘kick the can’ for a few more years. Expect a stimulus package just before the Chinese new year.
  2. Oil – No one has reduced consumption. Its a supply side problem. It will get resolved, and should reach around $35-$40 by the end of the year.
  3. US Fed & interest rate – I heard Bridgewater CEO use the word “QE-Infinity”. Fed has no choice but to ease the money flow. So there will be more money again.

So we will be back with a small bull run again in a couple of months. The only change is that, this time, growth will be driven by US and India/China and a few other countries except Europe.

2 Billion more people are joining the global market. They want better cars, homes, smart phones, TVs, entertainment, electricity etc..

I believe Peter Diamandis’ theory of “Abundance”. 

So relax, we will be back in the growth mode again.

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Technology Predictions for 2020

I had written an earlier blog in 2012 about how future will look like in 2015. (http://giridevanur.com/innovation/tech-predictions-for-2015)

I got some accurately right and some wrong!

Now am sticking out my top 10 predictions for 2020.

  1. Self driving cars will still not be a reality.
  2. Amazon Drones will not deliver your gifts for sure.
  3. Desktop computers will still be around. Microsoft surface will be a winner.
  4. Apple would have succeeded in phone8. They would have sold more than 1 billion iphones.
  5. Google will still be the king of search. So will the facebook as social media giant with 2Billion users.
  6. Chinese handset makes Xiaomi will have replaced Samsung as the largest smartphone manufacturer.
  7. There will  be no real internet of things. One would still goto a store to pick tooth brush etc.
  8. VR goggles of various companies will be a big hit. 100s of millions will be sold by 2020.
  9. Cellphones with 100GB download speeds would have arrived.
  10. Cloud technologies would have displaced traditional technology players.

Its going to be interesting 5 years, with another 3-4Billion people coming on to internet.

Lets wait and watch!!

 

Wish you a very happy new year!!

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One more suggestion came true

I had suggested an idea for a startup in Feb 2015 : (http://giridevanur.com/innovation/2-ideas-new-startups)

Today I got an email from a startup http://barracuda.co/#features

They have added the ideas from my start up idea #1.

I am very happy that this idea is coming out as a product!!

 

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starwars and reality

9 Pieces of Star Wars Tech Now a Reality (list)

http://www.gadgetreview.com/9-pieces-of-star-wars-tech-now-a-reality

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NASA & Patents

This is so cool. Kudos to Nasa for promoting truly “open source”!!

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/nasa-offers-license-free-access-to-1200-patents/

http://technology.nasa.gov/aeronautics/2

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Langer index youtube

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Incredibly great speech by Bill McDermott

Mr. Bill McDermott gave an incredible speech at Columbia Club hosted by Center for technology management of Columbia University (http://www.ctm.columbia.edu) and Ameri100 Inc (www.Ameri100.com).

Dr. Art Langer interviewed Mr. McDermott about his new book  Winners Dream: A Journey from Corner Store to Corner Office

He talked about 4 major areas which will lead to extraordinary success for executives.

1. Humility : Any one who aspires to be a leader or even a manager must have lots of humility.

2. Trust: A leader must be able to trust others as well as be trustworthy. This is the secret of being authentic.

3. Discipline : Leadership is a 24X7 thing. Its a constant process of learning and executing. To achieve that level of mental and physical stamina, one must have loads of discipline.

4. RoC (Return on Character): Bill talked about how character plays in the long run. One may get ahead for short periods of time by lying, taking others for a ride or other negatives. But in the long run, only people with good character win the race.

It was a fantastic event!

giri devanurBill Mcdermott@Columbia

giri devanur giri devanur 487-IMG_8578 343-IMG_8378 107-IMG_8002  130-IMG_8030 giri devanur  165-IMG_8085 giri devanur 218-IMG_8173 giri devanur 290-IMG_8285 456-IMG_8530

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2 ideas for new startups

I know why some of you may think I am just throwing off these ideas. Unless executed well, all ideas are….just ideas. Hence, instead of wasting them away, here I am posting so that some one may get “some other ideas” to build a startup around them.

Spending hours in airports either waiting for luggage or waiting for someone can be a painful activity. Especially in international airports.

Idea No1.

Imagine you are waiting at the baggage carousel. The airlines know your name AND know which is your luggage (I hope so). Why can’t be a display system which keeps showing once the baggage drops into the conveyor belt, its scanned and a large display screen shows that your baggage has been dropped. A revenue model? How many Samnsonite’s or American Tourister (even Tumi lovers!!) names would love to show off their brands, if they are displayed like this image!. Or even an app which can get the data from the airport scanners at the loading zone. I would pay $2.99 for that app.

.Giri Devanur airport idea1

 

Idea No2.

OK…now either you are a passenger in a a strange airport or you are a host waiting to receive a guest whom you have not met. Can there be an easier way? Imagine simply putting a numbering system which is displayed on a large screen that a John Doe is waiting for Jane Doe with a number? Imagine all those guys carrying name plates and searching for your own name etc…Cant there be a smarter and simpler way?

Giri Devanur airport idea1-2

“Certainly, travel is more than the seeing of sights; it is a change that goes on, deep and permanent, in the ideas of living”…….  Mary Ritter Beard

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AAPL interesting data

www.wsj.com/article_email/apple-the-700-billion-company-1423602877-lMyQjAxMTE1MjEzMTUxOTE4Wj

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iPhone 6 and is Apple stock value at peak? (Giri Devanur)

Being an avid user of Apple and all of its products since 1994 (except Apple TV), I have 3 major problems with iPhone6. If Steve jobs was alive, may be he would have never released this phone to market.

1. The Camera: iPhone has a camera which protrudes out. Ouch!!! So beautify designed product, except for one damn thing which sticks out. How did Mr. Ive allow such an obvious flaw?

iphone6 coming out

2. The grip: This phone has the smoothest edges. Faaaar too smooth. You are bound to drop it. Its so curvy and smooth, I hated when it dropped. Yes I did drop it a few times!!

3. The fragile glass: The smooth edges leads to obvious drop which breaks the glass. I know, it breaks some hearts too. Couldn’t they have made a little stronger and more durable glass. And its very expensive to fix it. Watch out.

OK enough of complaining…today AAPL stock is at $117 and approximately $682 billion (yes…$682,000,000,000). This still a very low valuation compared to its industry peers.  P/E is still 15.79. Where as Google (GOOG) has a valuation of $354B valuation and P/E of 25. So, apple has a lot more to grow.

Will it touch a $1,000,000,000,000 (1Trillion $) valuation…probably.

Whats the next break through innovation? Apple pay or Apple watch or Apple TV(with a TV screes..not just a box, which even I will buy).

Or has the stock peaked? Its a trillion dollar question.

—Giri Devanur

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